Nov. 27, 2008

By Lauren Brownlow

Every Thursday, check TarHeelBlue.com for the latest edition of the Game Guide, which provides all the information you need to get ready for gameday.

The Basics

North Carolina (7-4, 3-4) will close out its regular season by traveling to face Duke (4-7, 1-6) at Wallace Wade Stadium. Carolina will be trying to avoid closing a season with three straight losses for the first time since 1989. Carolina is coming off of its worst loss of the season, 41-10 to NC State. Duke is coming off of a 14-3 loss at Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils have lost four straight but are having one of their best seasons in recent memory after going 1-11 last season. Carolina has won 17 of the last 18 games in the series against Duke and holds a 55-35-4 advantage in the all-time series. In Durham, Carolina is 27-16-2 and has won nine straight in Wallace Wade Stadium. The last three games between the two teams have been decided by a combined ten points. Carolina won by three in 2005, one in 2006 and six in 2007.

One interesting note from this game is that Duke return man Jabari Marshall is 40 kick return yards shy of Brandon Tate's ACC career record. Carolina is sixth in the country in kickoff coverage, allowing 17.93 yards per return.

Game Time: North Carolina at Duke, 3:30, ESPNU

Carolina's game notes can be found here and Duke's official football site is here.

Last Time: Carolina beat Duke 20-14 in overtime on November 24, 2007 at Kenan Stadium. It was Greg Little who played the hero for the Tar Heels; he scored the game-tying touchdown with seven minutes left and then scored the game-winner on a 25-yard run on the first play of overtime. Duke drove to the Carolina 23-yard line with one second left in regulation, but Nick Maggio missed a 40-yard field goal as time expired (although the Duke team dumped a cooler of ice water on Ted Roof to celebrate). Joe Surgan missed Duke's 40-yard field goal try in overtime after the defense forced a three-and-out.

Duke outgained Carolina 360-249 and had 23 first downs to Carolina's 14. Carolina had one of its best rushing games of the season, gaining 174 yards on 32 carries. Greg Little led that effort with 154 yards on 26 carries (5.9 yards per carry). T.J. Yates struggled, completing 11-of-24 passes for 75 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He averaged fewer yards per attempt (3.1) than Carolina averaged per rush attempt (5.4). Hakeem Nicks led all Carolina receivers with six catches for 38 yards. Mark Paschal had 17 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss. Durell Mapp added 12 tackles. Duke's Thaddeus Lewis completed 18-of-27 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns and threw no interceptions. Jomar Wright had eight catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns.

Gameday Weather: Check the local weather forecast before heading for the game.

Radio Coverage: Tar Heel Sports Network coverage begins at 2:30 PM. The radio broadcast is also available on XM Channel 190 at 3:30. Since it's an away game, the Duke broadcasters will be heard instead of the Tar Heel Sports Network crew.

TV Coverage: The game will be shown on ESPNU.

Game week TV/radio coverage: "Butch Davis Live", Coach Davis' weekly radio show, will be broadcast live from the Top of the Hill restaurant on Franklin Street every Wednesday at 7:00. Inside the Huddle with Butch Davis airs Saturday morning at 9 a.m. on FOX Sports South. Inside the Huddle with Butch Davis will air on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WTVD ABC 11 in the Triangle and will review Saturday's game. The Tar Heel Football Review show featuring highlights of the previous week's games will air Tuesday's at 7 p.m. and Thursday's at 8 p.m. in the Triangle and Fayetteville on the local Time Warner Cable station.

Storylines

Third-down defense: The blame game has been going on between the Carolina offense and defense, except for it has been a contest to see which unit can take the most blame for the time of possession woes and the struggles of the team. Garrett Reynolds and the Carolina offense has said that it is their fault and that they need to sustain drives. That would certainly help keep the defense fresh but all it has taken is one lapse here or there for the Carolina opponent to break a game wide open. "If we don't let the opponent's offense score, we wouldn't have to worry about our offense," freshman defensive end Robert Quinn said when asked about Reynolds taking the blame. "If we can put points then we could make it easier on our offense. Instead of giving up seven of giving up three, it's a big change."

Carolina has come achingly close to putting together a complete defensive effort in its last two games but a few big plays here or there has broken everything open for the opposing offense. Maryland drove down the field methodically for the game-winning field goal but Carolina had the Terrapins in plenty of third-and-long or fourth-down situations. The Carolina defense faced some adversity early in the NC State game as the Carolina offense turned it over twice at the 50 and in Carolina territory; NC State made one field goal and missed another.

"I think probably through maybe the first six minutes of the third quarter, I thought our defense played pretty well. I'm not going to say that they played great, but they played pretty well," Davis said. "We handled some really, really poor field position really well. ... But after awhile, it's kind of like that book `The Tipping Point', when you keep having to go back out there - the fifth turnover, the sixth turnover, bad field position - and we contributed to some of that. We gave up some big plays defensively. There reaches a point where focus I think tends to wane.

"You hear coaches say this all the time and I think it's true, when there's little bitty things starting to crack and crumble and maybe something's not going right, then everybody wants to try to help somebody else do their job. It's probably the worst thing that you can ever do because now all of a sudden, the safety starts to lean because he thinks this will help or the linebacker starts to help because he thinks this will help. The next thing you know, it opens up cans of worms that are hard to put the fires out."

Prior to the NC State game, the longest pass play Carolina had allowed all season was 47 yards and it had allowed only two pass plays of more than 32 yards. Against NC State, Carolina allowed a 55-yard completion, a 54-yard completion, a 24-yard completion and a 21-yard touchdown pass. Had NC State attempted a pass in the fourth quarter, that number might have increased. Carolina had also allowed just ten runs of 15 yards or more all season; three were to the option-based Georgia Tech. NC State had a 26-yard run, a 22-yard run and four runs of 10 yards or more in the game.

So while giving up big plays is out of character for this Tar Heel defense, dealing with a mobile quarterback was clearly tricky for the Tar Heels. So the bad news is that both Thaddeus Lewis and Zack Asack are mobile quarterbacks for Duke. Asack actually led the team in rushing against the Hokies. "All the mobile quarterbacks, whether it's read-option quarterbacks or guys like him (Wilson) or guys like Tyrod Taylor, they have the ability when absolutely everything you think you did right defensively - you've got them covered, you're in their face - they can still scramble, buy some time, move around and either somebody potentially might come open or he just tucks it and runs and keeps a drive alive," Davis said.

Without Lewis in its last two games, Duke has converted 3-of-27 third downs. The Blue Devils are also twelfth in the ACC in red-zone offense, scoring 26-of-37 times (18 touchdowns). They have lost one fumble, missed two field goals and had seven turnovers on downs. So the Carolina defense, which is tenth in the league in the red zone, will need to stiffen up there. It has two red-zone interceptions but opponents have scored 33 of 37 times in the red zone, including 23 touchdowns. Duke has nothing to lose and will likely be using all of its downs in that area.

Carolina reclaiming its identity: The Tar Heels will likely go to a bowl game and are assured of a winning season. But after having the Coastal Division within its grasp two weeks ago, Carolina is on a two-game skid and is looking for something positive to build upon. As Davis said, it's an opportunity to flip the team's record from 4-8 last season to 8-4 this season. It will be Carolina's second straight game against a rival with nothing to lose. And this will be Carolina's second chance to bounce back after a loss, something it had done so well all season until last Saturday. This team has been tough and faced down injuries to starters and other key players. It will have to find a way to rebound from a loss that was 23 points worse than the other three losses combined.

"Probably one of the greatest statements that somebody ever said and it certainly was not about a football coach but as a leader was to make sense out of confusion," Davis said. "When things are going wrong, that's one of the things where leaders - and that's probably one of the areas that we're struggling a little bit, to be honest with you, with this football team. We lost some great leaders last year, the Kentwan Balmer's and stuff. We've got some good leaders but you need guys that sit there and say, `Okay guys, enough is enough. We fumbled these two times. That's it for the rest of the day. Let's settle down. Let's get back into playing. Let's be focused and let's be sharp.'"

One of those leaders is Garrett Reynolds, the senior right tackle who recalled sitting at his locker in disbelief after the loss to NC State and his final game in Kenan Stadium. Reynolds said he also feels that the Tar Heels have lost a bit of their identity in the past two weeks. He also knows better than most how tough this Duke game will be. Carolina can't afford to feel sorry for itself. "We've just got to get back to work," Reynolds said. "This team would love to beat us probably more than State would. So it's going to be a great week for us to get back to work, get our heads back on straight and start working on the things we've been doing all year and getting our identity back."

This team has built an identity upon creating turnovers and taking care of the ball. The six turnovers against NC State were the most in a game by Carolina since a rain-slogged affair against Miami of Ohio in 2002. Carolina has now turned it over eight times in the last two games and has gained just one turnover. In the first nine games this year, Carolina lost 11 turnovers and gained 24. Carolina has slipped to fourth in turnover margin in the ACC and 27th in the nation at +0.55 per game. A few games ago, it seemed certain that Carolina would finish the season with a positive turnover margin for the first time since 1999. That is still likely but far from a lock considering Carolina turned it over six times against the Wolfpack and is +6 on the season.

Carolina has been able to bounce back from early turnovers; Cam Sexton was sacked, fumbled and had it returned for a touchdown on Carolina's first play against Boston College. But this was a little different. Shaun Draughn, who has not had a lost fumble since Virginia Tech, lost a fumble on back-to-back plays on two different drives. While the Carolina defense surrendered just three points on the two turnovers, the damage had already been done. "All of a sudden, you start to doubt. Gosh, what's up with the fumbles? You start to get away from it, you get away from your identity," Davis said. "That's kind of who we were in the games that we've been successful - we have protected the football and taken care of it."

Duke is tied for fifth in turnover margin at +0.45 per game, gaining 24 turnovers (10 fumbles, 14 interceptions) and losing 19 (8 fumbles, 11 interceptions). Like Carolina, it has struggled in the last few games with ball security. After gaining five turnovers in the first half against Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils turned it over four times on four interceptions. Also like Carolina, one of those interceptions came on a comeback attempt and ended up sealing the game for the Hokies.

Reviving a lackluster Carolina offense: While third down has been a problem for this team in the last few games, it's really just a symptom of a bigger problem. As Davis pointed out when asked about it this week, what an offense does on third down depends quite a bit on what it does on first and second downs. "If you're having success running the football, play-action passes, mixing in some drop-back passes and you can keep second down to manageable - where you get into problems is penalties, sacks, negative plays," Davis said. "All of a sudden, now it's second (down) and 14. Maybe you make five (yards) but it's still third and nine. It's extraordinarily difficult for us and I would suspect for just about any team it's difficult to convert third down and long's. So we've got to do a much better job of managing our success on first down."

Against NC State, Carolina faced seven third downs of eight yards or fewer. It converted three of those into first downs, lost a fumble on 3rd and 6, went for it on two fourth downs and took a sack on 3rd and 8. With 32 yards to go, Carolina gained 29 yards on seven plays (4.1 yards per play). Facing four third downs of ten yards or more, Carolina was forced to be one-dimensional and with 54 yards to go on four plays (13.5), Carolina gained -7 yards (-1.8 yards per play). Carolina completed 0-of-3 passes and took one sack, punting three times and making one field goal.

Carolina has averaged 84.0 yards per game on third down, converting 55-of-146 third downs (37.7%). In the last three games, that number has dwindled to 8-of-36 (22.2%), including 4-of-22 (18.2%) in the last two games. Carolina is last in the ACC in first downs, averaging a paltry 15.5 per game. To put it in perspective, NC State is 11th and averages 16.3 even though it had 18 against the Tar Heels. Despite the third-down struggles in recent games, Carolina is still somehow third in the league in third-down conversions. That shows how dependent Carolina has become on making a play on third down.

In fact, Carolina has had games where more than one-third of its total yardage has come on third down. Against McNeese State, Carolina gained 384 yards and 189 came on third down. Of the 299 yards Carolina gained against Miami, 122 were on third down. In Carolina's last two ACC wins against Boston College of Georgia Tech, 190 of Carolina's 666 yards were on third down. In the last two games, Carolina has gained a total of 60 yards on third down and just 488 total yards.

It did not help that the average distance Carolina faced on third down against Maryland was 9.7 yards and against State, it was 7.8 yards. Carolina had a four-game streak from the Notre Dame game through the Georgia Tech game in which it faced 6.9 yards to go or fewer on third down. Carolina converted 27 of 59 third downs in those games, punting 21 times and gaining an average of 6.0 yards per play. In the last two games, Carolina has faced 8.7 yards on third down and has gained just 2.7 per play, converting four of 22 tries, punting nine times, making 3-of-4 field goals and turning it over three times. Carolina had turned it over on third down just three times in the first nine games, including a lost fumble against Virginia.

Regardless of Carolina's offensive struggles, Carolina still went into the locker room down only 10-3 after turning it over three times. It wasn't until Richard Quinn fumbled a kickoff after a long NC State touchdown drive and NC State scored again to make it 31-10 that the game began to seem lost. Still, Carolina threw two more interceptions, one of which came when the team technically still had a chance. But the team and particularly the offense looked defeated.

"As poorly as we played we weren't out of the football game but that we had to effectively do something to change the outcome of the game. We had to start to play better. We needed to convert more third downs, we needed to run the ball better, protect the football. Unfortunately, we continued to turn the football over. If you're going to do those things, you're not going to win," Davis said.

If Carolina's offense thinks that it will get a break facing Duke's defense, it will be wrong. Duke is holding opponents to 55-of-152 (36.2%) on third down, fourth in the ACC. Duke is fourth in the league in time of possession, averaging 30:33 per game. Carolina is dead last, averaging 26:47. One spot above the Tar Heels is Maryland, a team which dominated Carolina in time of possession. Against the Duke defense, its last two opponents have converted 12-of-31 third downs but Duke has held Clemson and Virginia Tech to a combined 1-of-12 conversions in the second half.

"The secondary is very good, but the front seven, their linebackers are lightning fast. They run, they fill, they make plays," Davis said. "One of the things that was so extraordinarily impressive was the turnovers that they created against Virginia Tech last week. They play the ball in the air very well. You see balls tipped. Guys make plays. They're covered very well. Their defensive line, unlike a lot of other teams that we've played, they've got a lot of depth. They will play anywhere from 6-7 different defensive linemen. They really have the ability to put the pressure on the quarterback and control the line of scrimmage."

At The Game

Listening to the Tar Heel Sports Network at the game: The in-stadium frequency in Wallace Wade Stadium will be 95.3 FM.

Tickets: Tickets are available for purchase here.

How to get to the game: For directions to the stadium, click here. For gameday parking information, click here.

What to do in Durham: Durham is about ten or 15 minutes away from Chapel Hill.

Watching At Home

Turn down the sound: If you're watching at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.

A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.

ESPNU coverage: The game will be shown on ESPNU. Doug Bell will handle the play-by-play and Charles Arbuckle will be the analyst.

Names To Know

Shaun Draughn: After rushing for at least 64 yards in a five-game stretch between Connecticut and Georgia Tech including four games of 90 yards or more and two 100-yard games, Draughn has 102 yards on 26 carries in the last two games (3.9 yards per carry). He had been averaging 4.9 yards per carry in the previous stretch. His 46 yards against Maryland were a season-low when he has had double-digit carries and his 56 yards against NC State weren't much better. Draughn had also gone through a seven-game stretch without a fumble and then lost two on back-to-back carries.

NC State scored only three points off of those two Draughn fumbles but it visibly shook up both Draughn and the team. Twenty of Draughn's 56 yards came on his first carry of the game; after the two lost fumbles, he had nine carries for 28 yards. "We know Shaun can run the ball and he knows it," Garrett Reynolds said. "It's really just reminding him, `Hey man, we know you're back there. We've got all the confidence in the world in you. We know you're going to do great. Just tuck that ball and run like you've been running all year.' We're not worried about him dropping the ball. He's not really had a problem with that. He's just got to make sure that that's one thing he works on this season during practice."

Draughn has been instrumental in getting this Carolina offense going this season, particularly when T.J. Yates was out with an injury. Carolina has been losing the time of possession battle badly and if Draughn and the rest of the Tar Heel running can get it going again, that would certainly help. Duke is last in the league in rushing defense, allowing 149 yards per game. However, Duke held Virginia Tech to 187 rushing yards (3.9 yards per carry). Clemson rushed for 140 yards but most of it came on big plays. It held Vanderbilt to 81 yards and Wake Forest to 112 yards. The Duke defense even held Navy, a team that relies heavily on rushing, to 207 yards on the ground.

Bruce Carter: Mark Paschal, Carolina's leading tackler, will never play football again and the Tar Heels will miss not only his intelligence but also his passion. The talented and speedy sophomore linebacker is the fourth-leading tackler on the team with 55 stops (39 solo) and leads the team in tackles for loss with 9.0 and in sacks with 3.0. His 9.0 tackles for loss make him 16th in the league and all nine are solo tackles. He is the only person on that list in the league to have all of his tackles for loss be solo stops.

Carter has had a knack for making plays for the Tar Heels this season even when his teammates are struggling. Everyone remembers his multiple blocked punts and fantastic special teams plays this season. Even though he missed most of the fourth quarter against NC State, he had five tackles and one of Carolina's two sacks. Against Maryland, he had 11 tackles and led the team in tackles for loss with two.

Last season against Duke, Carter had four tackles, a fumble recovery and a pass breakup. He recovered a fumble forced on a sack by E.J. Wilson at the Carolina 45-yard line but the Tar Heels went three-and-out. The pass breakup was on 2nd and 8 in overtime that ultimate forced a Duke field goal that missed. But his teammate Mark Paschal had 17 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss. Carolina will need Carter to combine his skill with Mark Paschal's passion and drive to help lead this now young group of linebackers.

E.J. Wilson: The junior defensive end has quietly been one of the most consistent performers on the line this season. After the NC State loss, he was just as puzzled as the rest of his teammates but said that the defensive line needs to be able to get more pressure on the quarterback and keep contain. That will be especially important this week when Carolina will face a mobile quarterback yet again.

Against Connecticut and Notre Dame, he had five of Carolina's 12 quarterback hurries. He had Carolina's only sack against Virginia. In the Boston College and Georgia Tech games, he had four of Carolina's 12 quarterback hurries and added eight tackles. Against NC State, he had two of Carolina's five quarterback hurries and three tackles. Last year against Duke, Wilson had one of his better games with six tackles (2 solo), 1.5 tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble. The forced fumble was on the sack and he gave Carolina the ball on its 45-yard line although it was forced to punt. He also saved the game in regulation, stopping Lewis on a 3rd and 2 quarterback sneak for a one-yard gain to the Carolina 22-yard line. Nick Maggio would miss the 40-yard try that would have won the game.

Michael Tauiliili: The senior linebacker, playing his last game at Wallace Wade Stadium, has been a huge part of the Duke defense's improvement over this season. He has spent his four years at Duke leading the team in tackles all four years. This season, the dynamic linebacker has double-digit tackles for loss for the fourth straight season and is in the top ten in the ACC in several categories. Most notably, he leads the league in tackles with 10.9 per game (56 solo, 64 assists, 120 total). Most of the top tacklers in the league don't rank in the other categories, but Tauiliili is tenth in tackles for loss (10.5), tenth in passes defended (five pass breakups, three interceptions) and third in fumbles forced with three.

Where a play is happening, Tauiliili will be there. He was named the Walter Camp Foundation Defensive Player of the Week for his performance against Virginia in Duke's 31-0 win when he notched a whopping 16 tackles. In the last three games, he has 39 tackles (23 solo), 3.0 tackles for loss and 0.5 sacks. Against Virginia Tech, he had nine tackles (three solo), 0.5 sacks, three passes defended and one quarterback hurry. He also had an interception that he returned to the Duke 49-yard line in a game in which Duke was struggling for any offense. He has come up big in big games; in Duke's win over Vanderbilt, he had seven tackles, one forced fumble, one pass defended, one quarterback hurry and one interception. That is like a stat line of a cornerback, linebacker and defensive lineman put together. This will be his last game at home for the Blue Devils and he will be fired up. Last season against Carolina, he had seven tackles and one pass breakup.

Thaddeus Lewis/Zack Asack: Thaddeus Lewis was leading the ACC in total offense when he went out in the first quarter against Clemson with a foot injury. As it stands, he is third in passing average (189.3 yards per game) and has completed 60.9% of his passes for 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is right up there with the quarterbacks Carolina has faced like Jimmy Clausen and Russell Wilson. He is still second in total offense with 198.7 yards per game and the 6-2 junior is third in pass efficiency with a 123.5 rating.

He has a 300-yard game this season that came against NC State when he completed 37-of-52 passes for 317 yards and two touchdowns. He threw no interceptions in that game and led the Blue Devils in rushing with 41 yards on six attempts (6.8 yards per carry). He also has a 400-yard game, passing for 428 yards against Navy. Lewis has rushed 64 times for 94 yards and averages 9.4 yards rushing per game. He has also rushed for two touchdowns.

Asack, a 6-4 junior, had to come in against Clemson after Thaddeus Lewis went down and completed 10-of-22 passes for 61 yards. He threw one touchdown and two interceptions but did lead Duke in rushing with ten rushes for 32 yards. He led the Blue Devils in rushing again in his start against Virginia Tech with 24 attempts for 87 yards (3.6 yards per carry). He completed just 2-of-9 passes for 20 yards and four interceptions. Asack has played in 11 games this season and has completed 23-of-48 passes for 162 yards, two touchdowns and six interceptions. He has 52 rushes for 172 yards and one touchdown, averaging 3.3 yards per rush and 15.6 rushing yards per game. Despite his struggles passing, He has shown mobility and that has given Carolina trouble.

Both quarterbacks played against Carolina last season. Lewis completed 18-of-28 passes for 218 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He was sacked three times. Asack completed 3-of-4 passes for -4 yards but rushed six times for 23 yards (3.8 yards per carry).

Vince Oghobaase: The 6-6, 300-pound junior defensive tackle has been on a bit of a roll recently. He is 12th in the league in sacks with 4.5 and second on his team but he has 3.0 sacks in the last two games, notching two against Clemson and one against Virginia Tech. He has 12 tackles (7 solo) in the last two games. On the season, Oghobaase has 45 tackles (21 solo), 7.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and five quarterback hurries. He led the team last season with 4.5 sacks and has already matched that total. Last season against Carolina, he had four tackles (2 solo) and 1.0 tackles for loss. Going up against Oghobaase in the middle could present a significant challenge to a Carolina offensive line that is trying to revive its running game.

Lauren Brownlow is the managing editor of Tar Heel Monthly.