Dec. 31, 2008

By Lauren Brownlow

The Basics

No. 1/1 North Carolina (12-0) will travel to face Nevada (7-5) in the last game of the 2008 season. The Tar Heels are coming off of a 97-75 win over Rutgers on Sunday night. Carolina has now beaten all 12 opponents by double digits, setting a new school record for consecutive double-digit victories. The 1992-93 national title team set the previous record with 11 straight. Nevada is coming off of a 68-63 win at home over Idaho State. After starting the season 3-4, the Wolf Pack have won four of their last five games, all at home by an average of 26 points.

Carolina leads the series with Nevada, 3-0. The Tar Heels have a road winning streak of 14 games, tied for the longest road winning streak by Carolina since the ACC formed in 1953-54. Carolina has a 3-0 record in the past 30 years on New Year's Eve. The Tar Heels also have a 35-2 record in December under Roy Williams and have won 18 straight.

Game Time: North Carolina at Nevada, 10:00 PM EST.

Last Time: Carolina beat Nevada 106-70 in the Smith Center on December 27, 2007. The difference came down to shooting as the Tar Heels shot 53.5% from the floor to 41.4% for Nevada. Carolina also out-shot the Wolf Pack 20-of-31 (64.5%) in the second half to 14-of-35 (40%), including hitting 7-of-11 three's in the second half to just 1-of-8 for Nevada. Carolina out-rebounded Nevada 45-33 and forced 20 turnovers to just eight assists. The victory seemed shallow, though, as Carolina lost Bobby Frasor to a torn ACL with 9:47 to go in the game.

Tyler Hansbrough led all scorers with 26 points on 9-of-15 shooting, adding a team-high eight rebounds. Wayne Ellington had 23 points, shooting 8-of-12 from the floor and 5-of-8 from beyond the arc. Ty Lawson had 16 points, six rebounds, ten assists and five steals. Deon Thompson rounded out the Tar Heels in double digits with 12 points on 5-of-10 shooting, adding two assists, two blocks and a steal. Armon Johnson led the Wolf Pack in scoring with 23 points on 10-of-18 shooting, adding one assist to six turnovers but there steals. Marcelus Kemp added 19 points but shot 7-of-21 from the floor. Future NBA draft pick JaVale McGee had 14 points, seven rebounds and four blocks.

Injury Report: Marcus Ginyard returned to action for the first time against Rutgers after an October 8th surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot and should be fine to continue to play. Mike Copeland tore his ACL in May and should return soon; he nearly returned against Rutgers but could not warm up in time. Tyler Zeller broke his wrist against Kentucky. He had surgery and will likely miss the rest of the season.

Storylines

Efficient defense: The lack of defense has been bemoaned constantly following the Michigan State victory, when even Roy Williams said that the Spartans missed quite a few shots that they would have normally made. Williams can repeat this point until he is blue in the face, but the Tar Heels are going to gamble for steals and potentially allow a few easy baskets. Some teams have missed open shots against Carolina, whether it is because of tired legs or just simply luck. Recently, teams have not missed those shots and have even made quite a few tough, heavily-contested shots.

But the concern lies in that Carolina held its first eight opponents to 67.1 points per game and 0.74 points per possession while the last four opponents have averaged 73.8 points and 0.81 points per possession. The Tar Heels are forcing a slightly higher loss of ball with 22.7% in the last four games compared to 21.9% in the last four. But teams have shot 45.9% from the floor in the last four games compared to 37.4% in the first eight. "You guys have heard me say before that the toughest thing defensively is to keep the other team's field goal percentage down as you gamble," Williams said. "Our gambling, trapping and pressure defense got them (Rutgers) to turn it over but they made the open shots that we gave them. I'm just greedy enough to want to try to be able to do both of them. I think that is hard to do, but we've got to do a better job of that."

The 0.88 points per possession allowed against Rutgers were the most the Tar Heels had allowed in the first half of a game since the 0.89 against Michigan State. Only four Tar Heel opponents have scored 0.8 points per possession or more in the first half. Those have had a 21.3% loss of ball as well with 37 turnovers in 174 possessions in the first half. Six have scored below 0.7 and those actually had a 25.6% loss of ball with 73 turnovers in 283 first-half possessions. The problem for the Tar Heels has been the second half. Three opponents have averaged one or more points per possession in the second half and all but two have averaged 0.73 or higher in the second half. In the first six games, Carolina allowed 0.92 points per possession in the second half and in the last six, it has held opponents to 0.74. But in the last three games alone, it has crept up to 0.86. The fourth, fifth and sixth-most efficient second halves have come in the last four games by Tar Heel opponents.

Keeping road poise and avoiding distractions: This game will mark Carolina's second road game of the season and third played outside of the Smith Center (not including Maui). Carolina played fantastic basketball against Michigan State in Detroit, a marquee game against the best opponent the Tar Heels have faced. But against Valparaiso and Santa Barbara, the latter a true road game, Carolina played two of its worst games of the season. There were a myriad of distractions involved in both - Carolina was on its way to Maui when facing the Gauchos and were preparing for Christmas against Valparaiso - but those are not valid excuses if this team wants to be the kind of team it knows it can be. Yet Carolina has set a record by winning its first 12 games by double digits despite not playing its best basketball.

"It says a lot about this team, how great we can be potentially, but it means nothing if we don't use it," Danny Green said. "We're trying to put two and two together, use our brain as well as our talent, the chemistry and get everything going and clicking at once. Right now, we've just got to stay focused. I think we had a couple of lapses over a couple games, especially the Valpo game. We didn't play our best basketball. We had a lot of turnovers - more turnovers than usual. A lot of guys were ready to go home at that time, but we've had a break now and we're back in action. I think it was a break that was well-needed and I think guys are ready to get back to business."

The Valpo game was particularly bad as Carolina began the game by turning it over 12 times in the first half and getting out to a quick 12-3 deficit. Carolina had 41 first-half points but 17 of those came in the final 5:17 of the half. Against Santa Barbara, Carolina saw an 18-10 lead with 12:58 left in the first half quickly turn into a tie with 9:38 to go and a 27-22 deficit with 8:27 left, giving up a 17-4 run in less than five minutes. Carolina never led by more than 20 and though they didn't play as badly as they did against Valpo, they never could quite shake the Gauchos.

Two of Carolina's three lowest point totals this season have come in those two games. Santa Barbara held Carolina to 84 points (second-lowest), Valparaiso held Carolina to 85 points (third-lowest). The Gauchos actually held Carolina to 0.93 points per possession, also the second-lowest, and the 0.97 points per possession at Valparaiso was fifth-lowest in a slow-down game. Carolina also had two of its highest loss of ball percentages in those two games - the Gauchos forced the Tar Heels into a 17.9% loss of ball figure (third-highest) and Valparaiso forced Carolina into a season-high 19.3% loss of ball. Without those two games, Carolina would be averaging 98 points in 93.5 possessions (1.05 points per possession) and just 12 turnovers (12.8% loss of ball). In those two games, Carolina has averaged 84 points in 89 possessions (0.94) and 16 turnovers (18% loss of ball).

Another thing that both games have in common is that the Tar Heels played a sluggish first half with a lot of silly mistakes. In five of 24 halves of basketball this season, Carolina has had more turnovers than assists. It has happened three times in the second half of blowout victories against Oregon, Oral Roberts and Evansville. It has only happened in two of 12 first halves, both of which were on the road at Santa Barbara (eight assists, nine turnovers) and Valparaiso (ten assists, 12 turnovers). As a team on the season, Carolina has a 1.64 assist to turnover ratio with 249 assists to 152 turnovers. In those five halves, that drops to 45 assists to 52 turnovers (0.87). Without those five halves, it jumps up to 2.04 (204 assists, 100 turnovers).

It's certainly nitpicky and it's a cliché to say that Carolina needs to develop a "killer instinct", but the Tar Heels have had trouble putting teams away even in the Smith Center in recent games. Williams mentioned that he had to re-introduce himself to his team after the holiday break with two practices in ten days. Now that the team is back into the swing of things, that should show in a New Years Eve game in Nevada that is rife with potential distractions.

At The Game

Listening to the Tar Heel Sports Network at the game: The in-stadium frequency will be 89.3 FM.

Watching At Home

Turn down the sound: If you're watching at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.

A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.

ESPN2 coverage: The game will be available on ESPN2.

Names To Know

Wayne Ellington: It's hard to imagine a Tar Heel having a more perplexing shooting stretch than Ellington has had. The junior guard has clearly expanded his game beyond what even he might have imagined when he arrived at Carolina, evolving from a spot-up shooter into a complete player who can shoot, create his shot, rebound, drive, and run the floor as well as anyone on the court. Nearly every shot Ellington has been taking in the last few games has looked like a terrific shot. He has not forced shot after shot to shoot himself out of a slump, but he is taking shots within the flow of the offense and continuing to be aggressive. Even though the shots aren't going in as much as he would like, he's doing his best to make things happen.

He has averaged 3.0 free throw attempts per game in the last four games compared to 1.9 in the first eight games. Getting to the line has been an important addition to his game; he averaged 2.9 attempts last season and is averaging 2.3 this season so far. But the Kansas game last season broke a streak of 17 straight games with at least two foul shots. Against Rutgers, Wayne Ellington shot 2-of-7 from the floor and 0-of-2 from beyond the arc, though he did make 5-of-6 foul shots on his way to nine points. He also had two rebounds, three assists, a steal and just one turnover in 24 minutes.

The shooting slump for Ellington has seen him make five of his last 22 attempts from beyond the arc after making 14 of his first 32 to begin the year. In the last four games alone, he has made 3-of-11 from beyond the arc (27.3%) and 11-of-31 from the floor (35.5%), averaging nine points per game. He shot 46.7% in the first eight games from the floor and 37.2% from beyond the arc, averaging 13.9 points. Ellington is having a superb season in all other areas, averaging 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.1 turnovers, and 1.7 steals. He is such a good shooter and his game has matured so much that the ball going in the basket is bound to follow. With the return of teammate Marcus Ginyard, Ellington should be able to do more on the offensive end without having to guard the opponents' hot shooting guard as he did against Rutgers.

Marcus Ginyard: The beloved Tar Heel senior is the fourth of the fifth seniors to return healthy, the nucleus of a class that has enchanted the Tar Heel faithful since their arrival. Mike Copeland is the lone holdout and should return soon. But Ginyard is arguably the heart and soul of this team and his return is likely to smooth out the teams' play rather than throw a kink into the smooth operation so far. If anything, Ginyard's presence in his first full game back with fellow defensive specialist and senior Bobby Frasor should help fix some issues on the defensive side of the ball.

"It gives us another threat to pick us up even more, especially on the defensive end of the floor where I think right now we might need it most," Green said. "He's a great vocal defender and he tells guys where they need to be. Just knowing the system and getting guys into certain places, he's very good at that, talking to guys and helping them through it. He's definitely one of our leaders and can help the freshmen through it."

Though Green and fellow experienced backcourt teammate Wayne Ellington have stepped up their defensive play, Green pointed out that they will get a bit of relief as well. Ginyard has never been a scorer for the Tar Heels but has locked up the opponents' leading scorers very effectively throughout the years. With him back to fill that role, it takes a little bit of pressure off of some of the Tar Heel scorers. "It gives us another defender to guard," Green said. "We don't have to use me and Wayne and Bob (Frasor) as much. Wayne gets tired from chasing (Rutgers' guard Mike) Rosario and so on the offensive end, he's not able to get his legs under him and shoot a little bit. Now we have another long defender to guard small guards."

Armon Johnson: On a team full of young players, Johnson provides experience in the backcourt and despite being a sophomore, he started 22 of 23 games last season and is essentially a veteran. The 6-3 point guard was thrust into action last season as a freshman and was named WAC Freshman of the Year, averaging 11.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists and a 1.42 assist/turnover ratio. He hit double figures in 21 games last season and 20 points four times. He had at least five assists eight times. This season, he is leading the team in scoring with 15 points per game, in assists with 4.4 per game, and in free throws attempted with 59. He is second in minutes played with 30.8 per game, second in steals with 17 and adds 3.8 rebounds per game.

In five losses, Johnson has 18 assists (3.6 per game) to 14 turnovers, a 1.3 ratio. In seven wins, he has 35 assists (5.0 per game) to just 10 turnovers, a 3.5 ratio. He is averaging 15.4 points in losses and 14.7 in wins, but has shot 37.7% in the losses and 45.3% in the wins. He had a career-high of 23 points last year against Carolina, something he did twice last season. Despite setting a new career high against Cal with 33 points on 11-of-21 shooting, Nevada lost that game on the road. Against Idaho State, he had just six points o 3-of-12 shooting but added four assists and just one turnover. It broke a six-game streak of double-figure scoring for Johnson.

Luke Babbitt: The 6-9, 225-pound freshman has had to step in right away and contribute, and he has answered that call; he has been forced into action for a team-high 31.8 minutes per game already. Coming into Nevada as the No. 24 player in the nation according to Scout.com, he has lived up to the billing. He is second in scoring on the team with 14.9 points per game and first in rebounding with 7.2 per game. He also leads the team in three-point percentage (38.5%) among those who have attempted more than ten. He is second in blocked shots with nine and leads the team in made free throws with 47 (he is second in attempts with 57).

He has shot 44.5% from the floor but in the Wolf Pack's seven wins, he has shot 36-of-77 (46.8%) and 6-of-9 (66.7%) from beyond the arc, averaging 15.9 points. He also had ten assists and six turnovers in those wins. In the five losses, he has shot 25-of-60 from the floor (41.7%) and 4-of-17 from beyond the arc (23.5%), averaging 13.6 points and dishing out six assists to 12 turnovers. He has hit double figures in ten straight games and 11 of 12 this season. In the win over Idaho State, he shot 4-of-11 from the floor and 8-of-8 from the foul line on his way to 16 points. He also had six rebounds, one assist, one steal, no fouls and just one turnover in 37 minutes.

Quotables

"I'm 58 years old. Defense has been a priority every day I've been alive. The day it's not a priority, there'll be somebody else sitting up here at this press conference." -Roy Williams

"I kind of like it, because I get to talk to the people sitting over there so I'm not sitting over there all by myself." -Marcus Ginyard on riding the exercise bike

Lauren Brownlow is the managing editor of Tar Heel Monthly.