Nov. 19, 2009

By Lauren Brownlow

The Basics

No. 6/4 North Carolina (3-0) will face off against No. 15 Ohio State (2-0) in the semifinals of the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. The winner will play either Syracuse or Cal in the finals. Carolina is entering into a stretch of facing five ranked teams in its next eight games. Carolina is coming off of an 88-77 win over Valparaiso on Sunday. Ohio State beat James Madison 72-44 on November 12th. Carolina leads the all-time series between the two teams, 9-2. Ohio State's last win in the series came in the NCAA Tournament in 1992. Carolina has also won five in a row and 11 of its last 12 games against Big Ten teams; the only loss was a rematch of the national title game on November 28, 2005 when Carolina lost to Illinois.

Game Time: Carolina vs. Ohio State, Madison Square Garden, Coaches vs. Cancer semifinals, 9:15 PM.

Last Time: Carolina beat Ohio State in Columbus 66-55 on November 28, 2007. Carolina shot just 38 percent from the floor but it was Wayne Ellington's 23 points on 8-of-15 shooting that kept Carolina in it. The Tar Heels also out-rebounded the Buckeyes 58-42. Ohio State shot even worse than Carolina: 27.1 percent, including 22.9% in the second half. Ohio State went as long as 11 minute without a field goal and missed as many as 17 consecutive shots. Ty Lawson did not play in the game. Ellington's 23 led the team, but Deon Thompson added 14 points on 7-of-12 shooting. Tyler Hansbrough was the only other Tar Heel in double digits with 13 points but he shot just 6-of-19; he did chip in 11 rebounds. Marcus Ginyard had nine points on 4-of-8 shooting and added eight rebounds. Jon Diebler led Ohio State with 19 points (5-of-14 from beyond the arc) and Jamar Butler added 17 points. David Lighty had ten points as the only other Buckeye in double digits.

Storylines

The zone offense: Carolina will likely see quite a bit of zone the rest of the season, and that's something Roy Williams has known since Day 1. Turnovers are a huge problem with this offense, but a lot of those are coming because Carolina has not quite figured out how to play against a zone yet. Turnovers as a symptom of that, but so is bad shot selection, bad ball movement and bad spacing. Those things are all improving but against an Ohio State team that will almost certainly play zone (and has plenty of length), the Tar Heels will have to be patient. "I don't think we're improving against (the zone) right now," a grumpy Marcus Ginyard said after the Valparaiso game. "There's no question we need to get better with the zone, our movement with the zone and continue to get the shot that we want."

Carolina will also not be the same offense it was last season. This year, the team must be more patient and get the best shot possible. "I think that we will be a better team offense," Williams said. "Last year, we'd move the ball 3-4 times and get it to a guy and I'd say, `All right, our job is to give you a little advantage - now be a player,' and that was good enough. We've got to give them a little more of an advantage."

After the Valpo game, Larry Drew II - who has six of his ten turnovers this season off of bad passes - said he was disappointed in himself. Drew II had four bad-pass turnovers against Valparaiso and when he had two within 59 seconds of each other, Williams yanked him out of the game. Drew II said that while all turnovers drive Williams crazy, it's "stupid" turnovers, or ones Williams liked to call "unforced". It's hard to determine exactly what an unforced turnover is. A ball getting knocked away from a Carolina player might seem careless to a fan but could just be a nice effort by the opponent. Carolina intercepts quite a few passes off of anticipation and fans would see those as steals and great plays while opposing fans might see them as lazy passes. So they can really only be broken down into dribble violations (traveling, double-dribbles, palming), offensive fouls, bad passes or ball control issues where it gets knocked away from someone not yet looking to pass.

Of Carolina's 59 turnovers, 48 have come on a bad pass or ball control issue, like dribbling it off one's foot or mishandling a good pass. Thirty-four have come off of bad passes, which is far too many. Just 24 of Carolina's opponents' 50 turnovers have come off of bad passes. The biggest issue Williams has had with his young team is not even so much that they are turning it over. Sometimes, playing against teams that pressure can be overwhelming, particularly for young and inexperienced players.

But as noted, Carolina's turnovers have not been a result of pressure. For the most part, Carolina's turnovers - particularly against Valparaiso - have been telegraphed or lazy passes that are not quite seeing where the zone defense is and the opponents are picking off those passes. All eight of Carolina's second-half turnovers were on bad passes and seven of the eight were in the halfcourt offense. "We've got to stop turning the ball over," Williams said after the game. "We're playing man-to-man pressure and they're playing a zone defense, we turn it over 14 times and they turn it over nine. You've got to value the dadgum basketball."

Stopping dribble penetration: Carolina has done a fantastic job of defending the two-pointer, holding opponents to a ridiculous 44-of-131 (33.6%) from inside the arc this season. But beyond the arc, opponents have made 24-of-59 three's (40.7 percent), a percentage far too high for Roy Williams. That is particularly true since Valparaiso made 12 of those three's, largely a result of dribble penetration opening up shooters or the failure of defenders to get around screens. "Off the dribble drive, if a guy is playing one-on-one, all we can do is get a hand up on the shot. If it happens to go in, that's good defense and you can't really do anything about that," Drew said. "But they had a couple of three-pointers on the pick-and-roll with some guys not talking, some guys not hedging out, guys not going under the hedger and stuff like that. That's just stuff that we've got to work on."

Carolina also got beat quite a few times backdoor, which is to be expected considering the way Carolina plays defense. But the times Carolina was beaten, it was beaten badly. Carolina took a step backwards against Valpo in a lot of areas and defense was one of those. "We always say if a guy goes backdoor, it doesn't bother me as long as he just beats you a little bit and you're right there and you've got pressure on the ball," Williams said. "But if you get beat by 10-12 feet, you're not ready and you have no pressure on the ball and your teammate's not helping you."

Valparaiso is a very well-coached team, but one that is significantly less talented than the opponents Carolina is preparing to face. The Tar Heels will need to be very focused on the defensive end and not let those same kinds of breakdowns and mistakes happen. "You can't get beat down the middle of the court. We know everybody is going to play like that, so our big guys have to decide they're going to get out and slide their feet, but it wasn't just the big guys. Their point guard drove right down the lane the next-to-last play of the game," Williams said.

Would Carolina and Roy Williams rather opponents make three's than two's? Yes. But they don't want those three's to be wide open. Carolina has not played a particularly good team this season - their opponents have a combined record of 1-7 and have been outscored by an average of 19 points against all other teams. Here's a worse stat - while those three teams combined to make 24-of-59 three's against Carolina (40.7%), they have made a combined 15-of-76 (19.7%) against all other opponents. So it's not like they are outstanding three-point shooting teams, but they are getting good looks and any team can make good looks. NC Central earned 12 of its 42 points from beyond the arc; Valpo scored 36 of 77 points from there as well. FIU had just 24 of 72 points from beyond the arc but after making 8-of-23 against Carolina, it has made just 5-of-43 in three games against other opponents.

At The Game

Listening to the Tar Heel Sports network at the game: The in-stadium frequency in Madison Square Garden is not yet known.

Watching At Home

Turn down the sound: If you're watching at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.

A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.

ESPN2 coverage: The game will be available on ESPN2. Dan Shulman will handle the play-by-play and Dick Vitale will be the analyst.

Names To Know

Deon Thompson: It's big-time games like this where Carolina expects its seniors to step up. So far this season, Thompson has been doing just that. Last season, Thompson would always start off great, averaging 6.1 points, 3.0 rebounds and shooting 53.5% in his first 12.9 minutes. But in the second half, he shot just 44.7% and averaged 4.3 points and 2.6 boards in 11.1 minutes, nearly the same amount of time. In the Final Four for instance, he scored 14 points in 21 first-half minutes on 5-of-9 shooting, adding four rebounds in 21 minutes. In 22 second-half minutes, he shot 0-of-5 from the floor and scored just one point, adding three rebounds. But this season, he is actually turning it on more in the second half (not unlike former teammate Ty Lawson). In the first half, he has averaged seven points and five rebounds in 13 minutes, shooting 50 percent. In the second half - just 11 minutes on average - he is averaging 10.7 points (nearly a point per minute), 3.3 rebounds and shooting 68.8 percent. He has also shot 12 second-half foul shots, more than an attempt per minute.

His second-half performance against Valpo showed how far he has come. He got a technical foul in the first half after getting tangled up with a defender and sat out the final few minutes; he had just four points on 2-of-5 shooting and 13 minutes of play. In the past, he might have let that kind of adversity get him down mentally. Instead, he came out and scored eight points in the first 3:04 of the second half and after a spell on the bench, came in and scored four more in less than a minute, helping Carolina extend an 11-0 run. He had 16 second-half points on 6-of-9 shooting and added two rebounds, two assists and one turnover in his final 17 minutes.

"There's no question that Deon, his effort tonight and just his intensity I think was a game-changing factor in this game, the way that he played and the way he showed a lot of heart out there, getting after offensive rebounds, getting to the boards, and scoring some big baskets for us," Marcus Ginyard said. "He has just made huge steps since he's been here as a freshman. Mentally, he continues to stay tough and bounce back from not having the best performance that he wanted to last game and come back with a big-time performance for us."

Will Graves: Carolina's junior sharp-shooter is not making shots as much as he - or his coach - would like. Carolina has shot 36.6% from beyond the arc this season (15-of-41). But Graves, supposedly Carolina's most reliable three-point threat, has made just 3-of-11 (27.3 percent). Teams are going to zone Carolina this season and someone needs to be able to consistently be a threat to shoot them out of that and open things up inside. Marcus Ginyard and Larry Drew II have made nine three's, triple Graves' total. Carolina made 6-of-15 against Valparaiso and Graves made 2-of-6; he had made 1-of-5 in the first two games. "We can live with (6-for-15)," Williams said. "Will needs to make more because he makes all of them in practice."

But Graves is stepping it up in other areas, averaging 3.3 rebounds and an assist in about 18 minutes a game. He has not missed a free throw and on a team prone to turnovers, he has none. In fact, he is one of only two Tar Heels without a turnover - the other is walk-on James Gallagher who has played just six minutes. He also has just two fouls. To put those numbers in perspective, last season he averaged 0.8 assists, 1.2 turnovers and 1.6 fouls in the 20 games in which he appeared. Graves has had some nice hustle plays and has played within himself, two things he didn't always consistently do prior to this year. He appears to be making the most of his new opportunity and Carolina does not have many veterans on this team who aren't afraid of the moment, but Graves is one of them.

Evan Turner: The idea of having to guard a 6-7 point guard (newly converted by Thad Matta) who can penetrate and shoot is absolutely terrifying for any team, much less this one. What makes the junior even scarier is that he appears to be getting exponentially better every year and he might just be one of the most prolific players in college basketball this season. He's already off to a great start, averaging 19 points, 17 rebounds, seven assists, two steals and a block in 32 minutes per game. He's also shooting 54.8% from the floor, a stat that goes up each season - his lowest percentage was his freshman year (47 percent). He had only the second triple-double in the history of Ohio State in his debut at point guard, notching 14 points, 17 rebounds and ten assists, adding two steals and two blocks for good measure, in just 30 minutes.

Even as a sophomore, he was one of only two players in the country last season to average at least 17 points, seven rebounds and four assists per game. He was a 2009 All-American Honorable Mention last season and a finalist for the Oscar Robertson Award, making the First Team All-Big Ten unanimously. He shot 50.3% from the floor and 44% from beyond the arc last season, also averaging 6.7 free-throw attempts and shooting 78.8% from the foul line. He also averaged 4.0 assists and 1.8 steals before the switch to point guard. In Ohio State's last game against James Madison, he didn't have a triple-double but he did have 17 rebounds (again), 24 points on 11-of-19 shooting, four assists and two steals in 34 minutes.

Obviously, he is not going to play the role of a traditional point guard - he does not make three's as much, he turns it over a bit more than most point guards (though he only has four this season to 14 assists) and he will crash the boards on both ends (hence the 17 rebounds per game and 4.5 offensive boards per game). Carolina will have to be aware of him on the backboards and try to contain his dribble penetration, making him stay beyond the arc where he is less comfortable. But that will be no easy task.

Jon Diebler: The 6-6 junior guard might shoot a lot of three-pointers - 7.6 per game last season - but he makes a lot of three-pointers. He made 96-of-231 three's last year (41.6 percent). He averaged 11.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists and a whopping 36.7 minutes as a sophomore. He was able to finally relax last season; he came into Ohio State as a highly-touted shooter and made just 28.9% of his three-pointers as a freshman. But that doesn't mean he's a one-dimensional player. He has cut down his turnovers and increased his assists every year, going from 2.3 assists to 2.2 turnovers as a freshman to 2.7 assists to 1.8 turnovers as a sophomore. As a junior, he has five assists to two turnovers in two games (2.5 to 1.0). He has also averaged at least a steal a game in his first two seasons and has one steal in two games this year.

Diebler can be up-and-down when it comes to three-pointers - he hit 6-of-9 three's and scored 22 in the season-opener and 1-of-3 against James Madison on his way to seven points - but his potential to hurt a team remains. The 1-of-3 is not spectacular, but it is nothing like the 5-of-14 performance from beyond the arc that Diebler put up against the Tar Heels. He is not going to force three's but he will take them - and make them - when he's on. With the ability of Evan Turner to penetrate, Carolina absolutely cannot leave him.

Quotables

"(We'll run) until he blacks out, I guess. We'd better have a lot of trash cans around." -Larry Drew II, anticipating a tough practice on Tuesday

"We showed intensity in spurts, but you can get a couple of questions right on a test and still come up with a `D.'" - Will Graves on his team's performance against Valpariaso

"We shoot the ball and yell, `And-one,' you've got to make the dadgum basket before you start talking about and-one. That's what I said about Tyler Hansbrough - the greatest skill he had, he made the shot. He would say, `Oh, somebody fouled me?' You've got to play that way and not just run around like a chicken with your head cut off."

Lauren Brownlow is the executive editor of Tar Heel Monthly.