Oct. 28, 2009

By Adam Lucas

These days, offensive production can be measured in many different ways. Points per possession, a Dean Smith trademark, has enjoyed more widespread acceptance in the internet era. There's effective field goal percentage, there's a raw tempo statistic, and even one site that measures a team's luck.

But over the course of an entire season, there's one very simple way to gauge a Roy Williams-coached team. When they score, they're good. And when they score in bunches, they're very good. Points per game can sometimes be deceiving, because sometimes it merely indicates a disdain for defense or careless shot selection. In this case, however, it's not misleading.

Over the last decade, Williams-coached teams have averaged at least 88 points per game in four seasons. All four of those teams went to the Final Four and two of them won the national championship. Making it to 88 seems to be just as important to the Tar Heels as it was to Marty McFly.

The most recent team to crack that barrier was last year's team, which rolled to an 89.8 points per game average, the highest at Carolina in the last 20 years. On that team, creating Williams's favored helter-skelter tempo was easy: throw the ball to Ty Lawson and watch him sprint down the court.

This year, with Lawson gone, can the Tar Heels still generate that same kind of speed? Probably not--there's a reason the program hadn't averaged that many points in the last two decades. But to come close, they'll have to do it in different ways:

Hit-ahead

This is an accepted fact: Larry Drew II is not as fast as Lawson. Roy Williams acknowledges it. Even Drew himself acknowledges it. So how do the Tar Heels plan to continue getting the ball downcourt rapidly?

"Larry's not slow himself," Williams says. "And he has a great feel for being a quarterback. He will still try to push it. He has a great feel for pitching the ball ahead."

An assortment of athleticism at the wing and post positions gives the Tar Heels a terrific chance for the big men to beat the opposition down the court. With the secondary break, a transition scoring chance isn't always a layup; sometimes it's a Deon Thompson or Ed Davis early post-up opportunity and a quick conversion.

Carolina's depth in the post also means there's no reason for David and Travis Wear, Davis, Thompson, Tyler Zeller, and even John Henson to be fatigued. When they're fresh late in a game, they'll often be encountering opponents who are either tired or battling foul trouble. That's when easy baskets become more readily available.

Length

At some point in the past five years, "long" became the new buzzword to describe players formerly known as lanky. It doesn't have quite the same Matt Christopher-esque ring, but it's something the Tar Heels will hear often this season. Ed Davis has good length. For a point guard, Drew has good length. And John Henson? Before this season is over, he'll be described as long more frequently than Tyler Hansbrough was called hard-working.

But what exactly is the benefit of length on a basketball court?

"If a guy has special length, like a Brandan Wright or a John Henson, they can mistime a jump and still get the ball on their way down," Williams says. "They might even get it without going up at all. I don't care how high a guy jumps. After a couple tips, it's going to be who is the longest. And at 6-foot-10, John Henson is going to get a lot of those."

More length equals more possessions, whether it's gobbling up offensive rebounds or snuffing opposing possessions before they can benefit from multiple shots. More possessions equals more baskets.

Defense

"This is going to be one of our best defensive years in a while," Marcus Ginyard says. "With the athleticism and with those big fellas, we're going to be able to put some guys on the court who are extremely athletic and gifted."

This year's squad could also have an intangible edge that provides better defense. For the first time, there will be some Tar Heels trying to prove themselves. That wasn't a concern for last year's team, which occasionally coasted defensively--until the NCAA Tournament. Then, once the bright lights turned on, they became a defensive buzzsaw.

With five freshmen trying to earn minutes and a reputation, this team should have that same incentive from day one. Add the fact that they also possess the athletic pieces to play solid defense, and it's an intriguing combination. Drew and Ginyard give the Tar Heels a potentially Virginia Tech-esque backcourt, with the long arms and footspeed that the Hokies seem to clone.

Should any guards get dribble penetration, they'll be facing a difficult task in the paint.

"To be a good shot-blocker, you have to have a willingness to be involved," Williams says. "With Ed Davis, we have that willingness. With John Henson, we have that length and timing. That has to be an important part this year. We will practice it more to get them thinking in those terms.

"If we're not as skilled offensively where one guy can get his shot, we'll have to do a better job in team situations or get out in the open court more often. Bad shots and sometimes blocked shots lead to run-outs. That's going to be important for us."

Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly. He is also the author or co-author of five books on Carolina basketball, including the just-released book on the 2009 national title, One Fantastic Ride. Get real-time UNC sports updates from the THM staff on Twitter.