April 20, 2008

By Adam Lucas

Sabermetricians like Bill James are convinced that a batting order doesn't make much difference.

"There is no real evidence that batting order matters," James has said previously. "What matters is having good hitters. Who hits second and who hits sixth...there is little evidence that it makes any difference."

Maybe that's true. Maybe over the course of a long 75-game season--or, in James's case, a 162-game major league season--everything evens out. But sometimes baseball is a game about feel. And the feeling in Chapel Hill after Carolina's sweep of Boston College is that Mike Fox has hit upon a lineup that seems to bring the right hitters to the plate in the right situations.

The current order is a bit unconventional, because it features Dustin Ackley in the leadoff spot. Ackley is probably Carolina's best pure hitter, which suggests he should be in the third spot, the usual domain of a team's best hitter.

But he also has terrific speed, a good idea of the strike zone, and is followed by solid run producers, which makes him a solid leadoff candidate.

"Dusty is looking at the ball a little better right now," Fox says. "We've talked to him about not changing anything while making the move from the third spot to the leadoff spot. His walk/strikeout ratio is outstanding, and he's a prototypical leadoff hitter."

Finding the right hitter to place behind Ackley has been more challenging. Seven different players have spent time in the second spot this season--the latest is Kyle Shelton, who has thrived since moving into that slot in the second game of the Clemson series.

The senior from Charlotte is hitting .364 with nine RBI over the last week.

"Kyle is a prototypical two guy," Fox says. "He will hit the ball to right field and the key is that he is staying on breaking balls from righthanders, which has been a weakness for him."

"I'm showing a little more patience," Shelton says. "I'm not swinging at pitchers' pitches. I'm a little more confident in myself, and lately I don't even look at the lineup card. I feel more comfortable when I know I'll be in there and I feel pretty sure where I'll be."

Ackley and Shelton have been the table-setters for a thunderous middle part of the order. Tim Fedroff is having a breakout sophomore campaign (he was recently mentioned by Baseball America's Aaron Fitt as a candidate for first-team All-America honors), Chad Flack is Carolina's all-time hits leader, and Kyle Seager leads the ACC in RBI with 57.

Making that particular top five especially effective is the fact that it goes lefty/righty/lefty/righty/lefty, which makes it difficult for opposing coaches to figure out how to use their best relievers. Bring in an ace lefty to face Ackley and it's possible Shelton might get a big hit. Bring in a righty for Flack and he'd also have to face Seager.

The top five rarely strike out--as a team, the Tar Heels continue to have the fewest strikeouts in the ACC--and that abundance of contact enables Fox to play more aggressively on the bases, where the hit-and-run has been an essential part of the Carolina offense. In just 41 games, the Tar Heels have already stolen more bases so far this year (52) than they did in 73 games last season (47).

At the elite level of college baseball, however, almost all teams have powerful tops of the order. The difference often comes beyond those players. Big-hitting teams without consistency throughout the order find trouble in Omaha when they face the nation's best pitching. Teams that can put the ball in play from spots one through nine are the ones that play into late June.

In Sunday's 8-2 win, the offense produced from top to bottom. In spots six through nine, Tim Federowicz, Ben Bunting, Seth Williams, and Garrett Gore combined for nine hits, five RBI, and seven runs scored.

"I've been more relaxed at the plate," says Gore, who picked up five hits over the weekend. "I've been too anxious lately, and mentally I'm getting back into it...Today was one of those days where everyone in the lineup contributes."

Just the way Mike Fox ordered it.

Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly. He is also the author or co-author of four books on Carolina basketball.